03The Core 4 · Analogs
What evidence supports the key assumptions?
However novel a venture looks, its economics are not. A brand-new business has no track record of its own, but every decision inside it has already played out in companies that do. Analogs are those comparable companies — and their real numbers are the evidence behind every assumption.
- 01
Borrow, don't guess
If you don't know what a wine shop costs to run, study the specialty-coffee chains that do.
- 02
Mine the filings
Beyond database rows, read the 10-Ks and IPO filings for the operating metrics no database contains — square footage per store, rooms per hotel, units per market.
- 03
Judge, don't just collect
The skill shifts from generating comps to judging them. A false analog looks identical to a true one until you test it.
What you leave with
A sourced analog set with unit-level metrics, each cited to its filing.